It has been 27 days since Trump took office. He has been bolder with executive orders and DOGE than in his first term. For this post I thought would take a closer look at Trump’s standing in the polls so far.
Today, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of Trump’s approval ratings has him at 48.8% approval and 46.0% disapproval. Three of the 11 polls used in the average estimate his rating to be above 50% (Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and CBS). The Trafalgar poll had a sample of 1,321 registered voters. Rasmussen had a sample of 1,500 likely voters and CBS had a sample of 2,175 voting age Americans whether they vote or not. The average approval rating for Trump was never above 50% during his first term. Only during his first 2 weeks was his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating.
Polling Methods
The polling firms use different methods. In the RCP average only Rasmussen (a Republican Polling firm) limits their sampling to likely voters. Their most recent poll gives Trump a 54% approval and a 44% disapproval rating, a net approval of 10%. There may be other differences in their methodologies. They do not post their methodology on their website.
Five polling firms in the RCP average limited their polling sample to registered voters. The average of these polls gives Trump a 48.8% approval rating and a 45% disapproval rating. This gives a net approval of 3.8%. These polling firms provide their methodologies either on their websites or in pdf files.
The last 5 polling firms sample all voting age Americans. The average of their polls gives Trump a 47.8% approval rating and a 47.4% disapproval rating. This gives a net approval of 0.4%. These firms put their methodologies and full results either on their webpages or on pdf reports.
Trump’s standing in the polls so far does appear to be influenced by polling methodologies, especially in their sampling methods. There are many things that can influence responses to a survey. These include the method of administration (in person, phone, internet, mail, etc), how the questions are worded, and even the tone of the survey taker’s voice.