The people at the Trump rally last week in Latrobe must have been disappointed with Tuesdays election outcome. Victories for Democrats in Pennsylvania included State Sen. Doug Mastriano lost to Attorney General Josh Shapiro to become the next Governor of Pennsylvania, 56% to 42%. Likewise, Dr. Mehmet Oz lost to Lt Gov John Fetterman for the U.S. Senate, 51% to 47%. Exit polls explain Democratic Victories in Pennsylvania.
Many were concerned about Fetterman’s chances after the only debate he had with Oz. The Real Clear Politics average put Oz ahead by 0.4%. Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight gave Oz a 57% chance of winning in their last election forecast. Almost all of the polls in the weeks before the election limited their samples to who they thought were likely voters. Previously, I posted on how polls that included all registered voters gave Fetterman a larger advantage. Exit polls focus on actual election voters.
The image above shows that voters in the exit poll who thought the economy was either good or not so good favored Fetterman with 82% of those saying “good” and 66% of those saying “not so good” favoring him. White voters with a college education favored Fetterman 56%-43% while those with less than a college education favored Oz 60%-38%. Voters of color favored Fetterman with more than 77% of the vote with education status having no significant effect on their support.
The most important issue cited most often by voters in the exit poll was abortion at 37%. Fetterman received 78% of these voters. The second most important issue was inflation at 28% with Oz receiving 72% of these voters. The third most cited issue was crime at 11% with Fetterman winning 51% of these voters. Crime was the issue that Oz criticized Fetterman the most in television ads.
Another issue that Oz criticized Fetterman for was his health. Fetterman had had a stroke fight before the primary in May. When asked if his health was “good enough to represent state effectively,” 51% said yes and 46% said no which was almost identical to the vote each candidate received. Only 41% said Oz had lived in “state long enough to represent it effectively.”
Seventy two percent of voters had decided before October with 55% of these supporting Fetterman. Oz received 487,909 more votes than Fetterman for those who voted on election day. However, Fetterman received 697,709 more votes for those who voted by mail. Exit polls explain Democratic Victories in Pennsylvania. Next, I will write about local State Senate and House races.