There has been a lot of hand wringing about the election and why Kamala Harris lost. Did she not have enough time to campaign? Did the Democrats move too far to the left? Are minorities moving to the right towards Trump? Did third parties cost them the election? Before we can answer these questions we need to look at what the numbers say about the election.
| Candidate | V.P. Candidate | Party | Vote total | Vote % | Electoral Vote | Electoral % |
| Donald J. Trump | J. D. Vance | Republican | 76,916,743 | 49.86% | 312 | 58.00% |
| Kamala D. Harris | Tim Walz | Democratic | 74,391,179 | 48.23% | 226 | 42.00% |
| Jill E. Stein | Rudolph T. Ware, III | Green | 789,895 | 0.51% | 0 | 0.00% |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. | Nicole Shanahan | Independent | 747,656 | 0.48% | 0 | 0.00% |
| Chase R. Oliver | Michael ter Maat | Libertarian | 639,512 | 0.41% | 0 | 0.00% |
| Other | – | – | 772,109 | 0.50% | 0 | 0.00% |
| Total | 154,257,094 | 538 |
Above is a table I have abstracted from various sites of vote totals from the election (WordPress makes it hard to format a table). It is hard to find the totals for the third party candidates. Donald Trump had a 5 million popular vote advantage on election night. On the west coast the count was slower due to a large number of mail in ballots. Two and a half weeks later, almost all of the votes are counted. Trump’s advantage has narrowed to about 2.5 million votes with no change in the electoral vote. He currently has 49.9% of the popular vote and 58% of the electoral college vote. It is helpful to compare these totals to 4 years ago for what the numbers say about the election.
| Candidate | V.P. Candidate | Party | Popular Vote Total | Popular Vote % | Electoral Vote | % Electoral Vote |
| Joseph R. Biden, Jr. | Kamala D. Harris | Democratic | 81,286,454 | 51.25% | 306 | 56.90% |
| Donald J. Trump | Michael R. Pence | Republican | 74,225,926 | 46.80% | 232 | 43.10% |
| Dr. Jo Jorgensen | Jeremy ‘Spike’ Cohen | Libertarian | 1,865,641 | 1.18% | 0 | 0.00% |
| Howie Hawkins | Angela Nicole Walker | Green | 406,711 | 0.26% | 0 | 0.00% |
| Other (+) | 829,743 | 0.52% | 0 | 0.00% | ||
| Total | 158,614,475 | 538 |
The vote totals for 2020 are presented above from Dave Leip’s presidential election atlas. Overall, about 3 million fewer people voted this year compared to 2020. Trump has received about 2.7 million more votes than last year. Harris has received about 6.9 million fewer votes than Biden did in 2020. According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, voter turnout was 63.68% in 2024 while in 2020 it was 66.4%.
As for 3rd parties, the Libertarian party candidate received about 1.2 million fewer votes in 2024. The Green Party candidate received 303 thousand more votes this year than in 2020. Robert F. Kennedy received about 747 thousand votes after he dropped out and endorsed Trump. He was unable to get off the ballot on many states after he dropped out.
The Democrats lost more than Trump won. Pundits commented on the exit polling showing a higher minority vote for Trump (especially among African American and Hispanics). If left leaning minorities turned out less or voted 3rd party, it would make it seem that support was growing for Trump among these groups. It is likely that decreasing support among Arab Americans due to Biden and Harris’ support for Netanyahu cost them Michigan at the very least. Looking at what the numbers say about the election provides clarity. Next, I will look at voting trends for Pennsylvania.