Much has been made of Trump’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case and the passage of the so called Big Beautiful Bill. Subsequently, It usually takes a week or so before events like these register in the polls. It generally takes a few days to conduct them and they are expensive. Often the news media cherry picks the polls that reinforces their prior support for Trump. The Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling tracker significantly shows that there is considerable variability in Trump approval ratings in the second term.
During the period ranging from June 22 to July 15, his approval rating ranged from 50% to 41% for 14 recently published polls. Because of copyright issues, I cannot post the graph tracking the the RCP average of polls. For an illustration, you can see the graphs here. The current average is 45.5%. For his second term, the average has ranged from a high of 50.5% (after his second inauguration) to a low of 45.1% (on April 29).
Napolitan News Service conducted the poll with the 50% rating from June 30 to July 10 and sampled 3,000 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 1.8%. The 41% poll was by Quinnipiac from June 22-24. It sampled 979 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. Issues and Insights/TIPP conducted the only poll that sampled voting age Americans regardless of registration status (1,421). Rasmussen (a Republican polling firm) limits their sample to 1,500 likely voters. They do not say what the margin of error is.
While a 45.5% approval rating is not great for Trump in the second term, it is almost as high as it was at its highest point in his first term (47.1% on March 29, 2020). The wide variety in his approval ratings deserves more scrutiny.
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