More than a week has passed since the debate between Trump and Biden. Even with the 4th of July holiday there has been a wealth of polls on the race showing Biden losing ground. Since June 27, Trump’s lead has grown from 1.5% to 3.4% in a 2 way race according to Real Clear Polling. Below is a graph showing the race with 3rd party candidates included. Post debate polls show a 3rd party boost for Trump in nationally but not in PA.
In a 5- way race that includes challengers Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Jill Stein of the Green party, and Professor Cornel West, the gap between Trump and Biden grew from 2.6% to 4.9% over the same period. This suggests that the 3rd party candidates are having a bigger effect on Biden than on Trump nationally. Kennedy seems to have received the biggest boost from the debate with his support increasing from 7.2% to 10.3%.
Looking at the 2 way race in Pennsylvania, the gap between Trump and Biden increased from 2.8% on June 27 to 5.3% today. The graph below shows the 5 way race for Pennsylvania. The gap between Trump and Biden hardly changed from 2.7% on June 27 to a 3.0% lead for Trump today. The fact that the gap is wider in a 2 way race than it is in a 5 way race suggests that the 3rd party candidates may be hurting Trump more than Biden in PA. There was no debate boost for Kennedy in PA.
There have been 8 national polls since the debate while there have been 2 in PA. The results of the polls were fairly consistent both nationally and in PA. Time will tell if this boost for Trump nationally will last and will transfer to battleground states like PA. It is a value judgment whether a 2.3% shift in polls is a “seismic shift” or not.