Scrolling through the feed on LinkedIn I came across this photo showing the Catholic Dioceses with the largest rise in converts. The Altoona-Johnstown Diocese reports an 84% increase in converts to the faith. Could this increase in converts be an example of a Pope Leo XIV effect? He is the first Pope to be born in the United States.
The 84% increase in converts in Altoona-Johnstown is the highest in Pennsylvania. It is followed by the Harrisburg Diocese at 77% and Philadelphia at 60%. The image from LinkedIn did not provide a source or a date range for the data. Leo became Pope on May 8, 2025. The graphic was posted a week ago. It is likely that this data is from before the “feud” between Donald Trump and Pope Leo.
In the Altoona-Johnstown Diocese all of the counties except Centre County voted for Trump. Likewise all of the counties in the Harrisburg Diocese voted for Donald Trump. Conversely, all of the counties in the Philadelphia Diocese voted for Harris except for Bucks County (barely for Trump).
I do not know how the Catholics in these dioceses voted in 2024. There is also no exit poll data on voter breakdown by religion for Pennsylvania. Nationally Trump won the Catholic Vote 59%-39% in 2024. Without the date range for the convert data it is hard to know whether or not it represents a Pope Leo XIV effect.
Church Abuse
| Diocese | # of Abuser Clergy | Catholic population | Per capita Abusers | Grand Jury Year |
| Allentown | 37 | 258,997 | 14.29 | 2018 |
| Erie | 41 | 221,508 | 18.51 | 2018 |
| Harrisburg | 45 | 230,000 | 19.57 | 2018 |
| Pittsburgh | 99 | 632,138 | 15.66 | 2018 |
| Scranton | 59 | 348,600 | 16.92 | 2018 |
| Greensburg | 20 | 137,641 | 14.53 | 2018 |
| Philadelphia | 63 | 1,188,225 | 5.30 | 2003 |
| Altoona-Johnstown | 50 | 98,284 | 50.87 | 2016 |
| Statewide | 414 | 3,115,393 | 13.29 |
On a side note, a 2016 state grand jury investigated the Altoona-Johnstown Diocese on the issue of clergy sexual abuse of minors. Their report listed 50 clergy offenders. In 2003, a Philadelphia County grand jury found 63 abusers. In 2018, another statewide grand jury found 45 abusive priests. Adjusting these numbers for the size of their congregations, Altoona-Johnstown had by far the most abusers at 50.87/100,000 followed distantly by Harrisburg at 19.57/100,000. Philadelphia had the fewest per capita but that was a county grand jury that couldn’t investigate the surrounding counties and did not have the same resources as a state grand jury. Former SNAP President Shaun Dougherty did say in an interview that the church saw the Altoona-Johnstown Diocese as a dumping ground for abusive priests.
Could the rise converts in these 3 dioceses be a reflection of a Pope Leo effect? Pope Francis said many of the same things critical of war and peace issues and of the Trump administration so it may not just be a reflection of Pope Leo. Could it also be a reflection of people’s memories fading of clergy sexual abuse? Clergy are still arrested on abuse charges.
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