This is a followup to my post on unhealthy days and Trump’s vote in Pennsylvania. There were 7 variables from County Health Rankings. The second variable identified in the model was flu vaccination rates. The relationship between flu vaccination and Trump’s vote in PA are shown in the graph below.
In the graph above the % vaccinated for the flu in the PA county are presented against Trump’s percentage of the vote in that county. The model states that for every 1% increase in the flu vaccination rate, there is a predicted 0.3% decrease in Trump’s vote in that county. The number of unhealthy days and the other 6 variables can be ruled out as possible alternative explanations as they are controlled for in the model. Univariately, this relationship accounted for 39.8% of the variability in Trump’s vote.
As usual, Philadelphia County is an outlier with a 49% flu vaccination rate (the state rate is 55%) and 20% of the vote for Trump. Potter County had the lowest vaccination rate at 27% and 80% of the vote for Trump while Montgomery County had the highest vaccination rate at 64% and 38% of the vote for Trump.
In the past I have shown that local flu vaccination rates are positively correlated with COVID vaccination rates at the county level. This suggests that being skeptical of vaccination is associated with Trump’s support in Pennsylvania. Next up I will take a look at access to exercise opportunities and Trump’s vote in Pennsylvania.
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