On Saturday, August 12, the there is a profile of me in the local Johnstown, PA newspaper (the Tribune Democrat) on my campaign for city council. I was hoping to push for a living wage ordinance for the city but the State of Pennsylvania, along with 24 other states, has a law preventing the city from raising it’s minimum wage as the map from the National Employment Law Project (NELP) shows. I thought I would take a look at the characteristics of the cities/counties that have passed these ordinances.
NELP came out with a list of cities and counties that have passed minimum wage laws above the state or federal minimum wage. There are 38 cities and or counties that have passed such laws. 17 of these entities are in California, five were in New Mexico, three were in Washington state, two were in Maine, Missouri (which now has a law forcing them to go back to the federal wage), Maryland, and Kentucky (where there are lawsuits challenging these laws). Alabama along with Missouri has a law preventing municipalities from passing these laws after at least one city has passed them.
The first cities to pass such laws were San Francisco, CA ($12.25) and Santa Fe, NM ($10.84) in 2003. San Francisco increased it’s wage in 2014 to $15.00 to be fully implemented in 2018. Mountain View,CA revised it’s 2014 increase to $15/hour in 2015 also to be fully implemented in 2018. The most recent city to pass such a law is Minneapolis, MN at $15/hour to be implemented this year.
There were ten cities with populations less than 100,000 in 2016 and there were four cities with populations less than 40,000 (SeaTac, WA, El Cerrito, CA, Emeryville, CA, and Bangor, ME). Looking at which variables might predict the amount of the living wage ordinance above the federal minimum of $7.25/hr, there was a borderline significantly regression line with the city population in 2016.
As an indicator of health of the city or county’s economy I looked at the % change in the population from the last decennial census to the estimated population in 2016. Only three of the cites had a net loss
of population: St. Louis, MO (-2.47%), Bangor ME (-3.19%), and
Birmingham, AL (0.04%). St. Louis and Birmingham, AL are required by their states to go back to the federal minimum. The slope of the regression line was significantly positive with an estimated $0.17 increase in the living wage ordinance for every 1% increase in the population change. As can be seen in the chart above, Emeryville, CA had the largest increase in population and one of the largest increases in the minimum wage to $15/hr.
One can speculate as to the reasons for this relationship. Are cities with a population increase more receptive to the idea of a living wage ordinance? Are areas with shrinking populations, and shrinking economies, less receptive to a living wage? Is there something about the states that have passed laws barring cities from raising their minimum wages that is different from more receptive states like California and New Mexico?
I don’t have the answers to the above questions. This analysis cannot answer the more fundamental question of what impact these laws have on job growth in these areas. Two studies came out recently looking at the impact of Seattle’s living wage ordinance. One said it’s having a positive impact, the other said it’s negative. While it’s important to look at Seattle’s experience most of the cities on this list are not like Seattle. The city most similar to my hometown in population trends is Bangor, Maine. Studying that city would be most relevant for policy makers here, if the state would let us have a living wage.
|
City
|
State
|
year passed
|
Year implemented
|
amount
|
population when passed
|
Current population
|
Pop Change
|
% pop Change
|
Lawsuit
|
State Law
|
Revised
|
|
Albuquerque, NM
|
NM
|
2012
|
2012
|
$8.75
|
545852
|
559277
|
13425
|
2.46
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Bangor, ME
|
ME
|
2015
|
2019
|
$9.75
|
33039
|
31985
|
-1054
|
-3.19
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Berkeley, CA
|
CA
|
2014
|
2016
|
$12.53
|
112580
|
121240
|
8660
|
7.69
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Bernalillo County, NM
|
NM
|
2013
|
2013
|
$8.65
|
662564
|
676953
|
14389
|
2.17
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Birmingham, AL
|
AL
|
2015
|
2017
|
$10.10
|
212237
|
212157
|
-80
|
-0.04
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Chicago, IL
|
IL
|
2014
|
2019
|
$13.00
|
2695598
|
2704958
|
9360
|
0.35
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
El Cerrito, CA
|
CA
|
2015
|
2019
|
$15.00
|
23549
|
25400
|
1851
|
7.86
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Emeryville, CA
|
CA
|
2015
|
2018
|
$15.00
|
10080
|
11671
|
1591
|
15.78
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Johnson County, IA
|
IA
|
2015
|
2017
|
$10.10
|
130882
|
146547
|
15665
|
11.97
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Kansas City, MO
|
MO
|
2015
|
2020
|
$13.00
|
459787
|
481420
|
21633
|
4.71
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Las Cruces, NM
|
NM
|
2014
|
2019
|
$10.10
|
97618
|
101759
|
4141
|
4.24
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Lexington, KY
|
KY
|
2015
|
2018
|
$10.10
|
295803
|
318449
|
22646
|
7.66
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
|
Long Beach, CA
|
CA
|
2015
|
2016
|
$11.00
|
462257
|
470130
|
7873
|
1.70
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Los Angeles County, CA
|
CA
|
2015
|
2021
|
$15.00
|
9818605
|
10137915
|
319310
|
3.25
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Los Angeles, CA
|
CA
|
2015
|
2020
|
$15.00
|
3792621
|
3976322
|
183701
|
4.84
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Louisville, KY
|
KY
|
2014
|
2017
|
$9.00
|
597337
|
616261
|
18924
|
3.17
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
|
Minneapolis, MN
|
MN
|
2017
|
2017
|
$15.00
|
382578
|
413651
|
31073
|
8.12
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Montgomery County, MD
|
MD
|
2013
|
2017
|
$11.50
|
971777
|
1043863
|
72086
|
7.42
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Mountain View, CA
|
CA
|
2015
|
2018
|
$15.00
|
74066
|
80447
|
6381
|
8.62
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
Mountain View, CA
|
CA
|
2014
|
2014
|
$10.30
|
74066
|
80447
|
6381
|
8.62
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Oakland, CA
|
CA
|
2014
|
2014
|
$12.25
|
390724
|
420005
|
29281
|
7.49
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Palo Alto, CA
|
CA
|
2015
|
2016
|
$11.00
|
64403
|
67024
|
2621
|
4.07
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Portland, ME
|
ME
|
2015
|
2017
|
$10.68
|
66194
|
66937
|
743
|
1.12
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Prince Georges County, MD
|
MD
|
2013
|
2017
|
$11.50
|
863420
|
908049
|
44629
|
5.17
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Richmond, CA
|
CA
|
2014
|
2018
|
$13.00
|
103701
|
109813
|
6112
|
5.89
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Sacramento, CA
|
CA
|
2015
|
2020
|
$12.50
|
466488
|
495234
|
28746
|
6.16
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
San Diego, CA
|
CA
|
2014
|
2017
|
$11.50
|
1307402
|
1406630
|
99228
|
7.59
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
San Francisco, CA
|
CA
|
2014
|
2018
|
$15.00
|
805235
|
870887
|
65652
|
8.15
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
San Francisco, CA
|
CA
|
2003
|
2003
|
$12.25
|
776733
|
870887
|
94154
|
12.12
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
San Jose, CA
|
CA
|
2012
|
2012
|
$10.30
|
945942
|
1025350
|
79408
|
8.39
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Santa Clara, CA
|
CA
|
2015
|
2016
|
$11.00
|
116468
|
125948
|
9480
|
8.14
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Santa Fe County, NM
|
NM
|
2014
|
2014
|
$10.84
|
144170
|
148651
|
4481
|
3.11
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Santa Fe, NM
|
NM
|
2003
|
2003
|
$10.84
|
61109
|
67947
|
6838
|
11.19
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Santa Monica, CA
|
CA
|
2015
|
2020
|
$15.00
|
89736
|
92478
|
2742
|
3.06
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
SeaTac, WA
|
WA
|
2013
|
2013
|
$15.24
|
26909
|
28873
|
1964
|
7.30
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Seattle, WA
|
WA
|
2014
|
2021
|
$15.00
|
608660
|
704352
|
95692
|
15.72
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
St. Louis, MO
|
MO
|
2015
|
2018
|
$11.00
|
319294
|
311404
|
-7890
|
-2.47
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Sunnyvale, CA
|
CA
|
2014
|
2014
|
$10.30
|
140081
|
152771
|
12690
|
9.06
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Tacoma, WA
|
WA
|
2015
|
2018
|
$12.00
|
198397
|
211277
|
12880
|
6.49
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Washington, DC
|
DC
|
2013
|
2016
|
$11.50
|
601723
|
681170
|
79447
|
13.20
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
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