In the post on flu vaccination rates and Trump’s 2024 vote, I was asked on reddit what the relationship was between gas prices and Trump’s approval rating. I told them that this data was not available on the county level but it was available on the state level. AAA keeps track of average gas prices in each state. As of this writing, the national average for a gallon of regular gas is $4.507. Pennsylvania’s is $4.605. California has the highest price at $6.116 while Indiana has the lowest at $3.917. These numbers change every day.
Statewide approval ratings for Trump are tracked by the website GelliottMorris. West Virginia has the highest approval rating at 59%. The District of Columbia has the lowest at 9% followed by Hawaii at 22.8%. This data shows that gas prices weakly predict Trump state approval ratings.
Regular and Mid-Grade Gas Prices
The above graph shows a relatively weak association between the state average price for a gallon of regular gas (horizontal axis) and Trump’s approval rating for that state (vertical axis). This relationship accounts for only 18.7% of the variability. The regression equation states that for every $1 increase in the price of gas, there is a predicted 8.19% decrease in Trump’s approval rating.
Surprisingly, the average price of mid-grade gas is a better predictor of Trump’s state approval rating than regular gas. The above graph shows that 29.2% of the variability in Trump’s approval rating is accounted for by the average price of mid-grade gas. In this case, there is a predicted 10.99% decrease in Trump’s approval for every $1 increase in the price of gas. For both graphs, the District of Columbia is an outlier with only 9% for Trump and an average gas price of $4.661 for regular and $5.294 for mid-grade. The national average for mid-grade gas is $4.984, Pennsylvania’s is $5.032. Next, I will look at this relationship with DC excluded.
Mid-Grade with DC Excluded
With the District of Columbia excluded, 31.2% of the variability is explained by mid-grade gas. This is a small increase from the graph with DC included. The regression equation estimates that for every $1 increase in the price of mid-grade gas, there is a predicted 9.94% decrease in Trump’s approval. A similar pattern is seen with regular gas.
Gas Prices in PA Counties
AAA does provide average gas prices at the county level. Current Trump approval ratings are not available at the county level. The above graph shows that average county prices are generally higher in the southwestern counties. The dark red counties are more than $0.23-$0.37 per gallon above the state average. The light red counties are $0.12-$0.23 per gallon. The white counties are between $0.05-$0.12 above the state average. The light blue counties are between $0.05 above and $0.03 below the state average. The dark blue counties are $0.03-$0.26 below the state average. Counties in east central part of the state generally have the lowest prices.
The reason for this price disparity does not appear to be political. Trump only lost 9 counties in 2024: Allegheny, Centre, Chester, Dauphin, Delaware, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Montgomery and Philadelphia. Trump won all of the red and blue counties in the map above except for Allegheny and Dauphin Counties.
Conclusion
It could be that more affluent drivers are more likely to use mid-grade gas than regular. For Pennsylvania, median income was a better predictor of Trump’s vote than poverty rates at the county level. The most affluent drivers are more likely to own electric or hybrid vehicles like Elon Musk’s Tesla. Thus, they are less likely to use premium gas. Enjoy the summer travel.