Many liberal pundits often predict that Trump’s MAGA followers will desert him every time he breaks one of his campaign promises. Except for the Epstein files, these predictions have not come to fruition. The latest prediction of a MAGA revolt is over Trump’s Iran war, which began on February 27. The polls so far tell a different story.
It usually takes about a week before we know if a significant event has an impact on the polls. Pundits at MSNOW (formerly MSNBC) tend to focus on their own network’s polling. Alternatively, pundits at Fox News and other conservative media prefer their own polling data. Pundits on both networks look at the other’s polling data when it confirms their own beliefs.
Real Clear Polling maintains a moving average of polls on Trump’s overall approval rating, and approval ratings on other issues including Iran. As of this writing, his current approval rating average stands at 43.4% with a disapproval average of 54.1%. Subtracting the disapproval average from the approval average gives a net approval of -10.7%.
The Real Clear Polling average for the war in Iran was 44.1% approval and 48.6% disapproval. This gives a net approval of -4.5%. Trump’s approval rating for the Iran War is very close to his overall approval (44.1% vs. 43.4%). His disapproval rating for the war is lower than his overall disapproval rating (48.6% vs. 54.1%).
This discrepancy in approval ratings could be a small “rally around the flag” effect which happens in times of war and national crisis. Will it last if the war drags on and energy prices soar? Trump did promise to reduce prices, including energy prices, during the campaign. Will Trump’s MAGA base abandon him over this or increased casualties? Time will tell but it’s not a sure bet.