Since the midterms and Herschel Walker’s runoff defeat, pundits are once again saying it’s time for Trump’s political obituary. Pundits at MSNBC have been harping on a Wall Street Journal poll showing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ahead of Donald Trump 52% to 38% in a hypothetical primary match up. This poll asked about a hypothetical two way race between the two. The poll was taken between December 3 and December 7. The Georgia Runoff was on December 6.
As can be seen below in multi candidate primary polls for the 2024 nomination, Trump still has a lead over DeSantis by an average of 18.2%. The two polls that came out after the Georgia runoff give Trump an advantage of 5% and 23% respectively over DeSantis. There could be many reasons why these two polls are so radically different such as sampling methods, wording of the question, the mode of presenting the questions, and random error. The first thing to remember is that one should not generalize too much from one poll.
If there is a two person race for the GOP nomination in 2024, DeSantis may have the advantage. It seems unlikely that the primary will just be a two person race. Many of the other potential candidates would jump at the chance to replace Joe Biden. Especially if his approval ratings remain in the low 40’s.
The above graph shows that Trump’s favorability rating has declined in recent weeks from an average 42.8% on October 21 to 36.8% on December 16. This is the lowest it has been since Oct 16, 2016 when the Access Hollywood tape came out. Surprisingly, three weeks later he won the electoral college vote for President. Trump may hold on to his base to win the GOP nomination. As the midterms show, it is difficult to win general elections with just that base.
It is easy to laugh at his latest ploy, the NFT cards. Certainly, he has defied conventional wisdom before. With all of the investigations closing in on him, it only takes one brainwashed juror to block a conviction. Keeping his campaign going could maintain his base of 36.8%. This increases the likelihood that at least one from his base could end upon the jury. Accordingly, it may not be time for Trump’s political obituary.