There was a lack of predictors for COVID hospitalization and case rates. I looked at 60 County Health Ranking (CHR) statistics for correlations. For vaccination rates, I found 12 significant results for COVID vaccination rates or 20%. Likewise, I found 19 significant results out of 60 for COVID Case mortality or 31.7%. The criteria for significance is a 5% probability or less of observing this result when there is no correlation. With a sample size of 10 counties, the relationship would have to account for 38.9% of the variability or more to be significant. These outcomes had significance rates much higher than the expected 5% rate under the null hypothesis.
Hospitalization Rate
With only 3 out of 60 correlations were significant which is only 5% for hospitalization rates (as number hospitalized/100,000). This is exactly at what would be expected at the 5% criteria for significance suggesting that these 3 comparisons may be false positive results. The three significant correlations were with: %rural, the juvenile arrest rate, and other primary care rate. The graph above shows the change in COVID hospitalization numbers in Cambria County since the pandemic began. Hospitalization is not a cumulative statistic. It represents a single point in time. The lack of significant results could be a reflection of what is going on currently.
Morbidity (Case)
Case rates in the area (as cases/100,000 population) were also correlated with the 60 CHR statistics. Of these, four were significant. At 6.6% of comparisons, the positive rate was slightly above the expected 5% false positive rate. The four significant correlations were: infant mortality, % with insufficient sleep, uninsured child rate, and school funding. I will not comment on them as most of the results were likely false positives. The above graph shows changes in cases/100,000 (morbidity) and deaths/100,000 (mortality).
A lack of predictors for COVID hospitalization and case rates provides an unclear picture of the pandemic in these counties. Mortality rates are highly correlated with case mortality rates. Case mortality is an estimate of the probability of dying when one contracts the disease. This makes it a more interesting metric to study.