I have an interview published on the website Manufacturing Chemist on healthcare analytics which you are welcome to check out. Today is pi Day (march 14 or 3/14). Which is more celebrated now than March 15 or the Ides of March, the day Julius Caesar was killed. Of course it’s not as celebrated as St. Patrick’sContinue reading “Happy 3.14159….. Day”
Tag Archives: Probability Theory
Managing Predictions with Bayes Theorem
I have been reading Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise, about how hard it is to make predictions even when we have complete data. I tend to be a slow reader so I’ve been reading it for a while. Finally I got to the chapter on his years as a professional poker player. Continue reading “Managing Predictions with Bayes Theorem”
Multiple Comparisons, Margins of Error, and the Affordable Care Act Census Data
In my last post I looked at changes in the census rates in 51 states (50 plus DC) since parts of the act have come into effect. I found 14 with a significant change from 2010 to 2011 (the most recent years available since the ACA was passed). Each individual state was classified as changed ifContinue reading “Multiple Comparisons, Margins of Error, and the Affordable Care Act Census Data”
Casey Anthony’s “CSI” Effect
The shock waves still continue to emanate from the Casey Anthony trial where the young Florida mother was acquitted of murdering her 3 year old daughter but convicted of the lesser offenses of lying to police. Rendering a verdict in court cases is much like testing hypotheses in statistics. The researcher (or the jury) makesContinue reading “Casey Anthony’s “CSI” Effect”
Probability
My recent post on Lance Armstrong received a high number of pageviews in one week (it’s already my second all time most read post behind Income and Life Expectancy. What does it Tell Us About US) but a low number of comments and a relatively short average visit time. That suggests to me that whileContinue reading “Probability”
Lance Armstrong’s Doping Claim: A Probabilistic Calculation
This Sunday CBS’ 60 Minutes did an expose on 7 time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong where his former teammate and close friend Tyler Hamilton accuse him on camera (and the piece also says that teammate George Hincapie testified this under oath secretly to a grand jury) of using the performance enhancing drug erythropoietinContinue reading “Lance Armstrong’s Doping Claim: A Probabilistic Calculation”