Earlier this year the Southern
Poverty Law Center created a map showing the concentration of hate groups in
the US. I adjusted the number of groups in each
state by the population in each state showing a different picture. Just after the election the FBI issued a new report that hate crimes
in the US have increased in 2015.
I thought I would take a look at any possible association between hate crimes,
hate groups, and Trump’s percentage of the vote.
The graph above shows the
linear association between hate groups and hate crimes (both adjusted for population
in groups or crimes per million) . There is a statistically significant
relationship with 25.8% of the variability accounted for. The regression
line suggests that for every increase of one hate group per million there is an
increase of hate crimes by 2.41 incidents per million. The District of
Columbia has an extremely high rate of both hate groups (26.78 groups/million) and hate crimes
(96.69 incidents per million). Massachusetts has the second highest rate
of hate crimes (60.49 incidents/million) but a low rate of hate
groups.
I looked at the relationship
first with DC removed (the relationship became negative and non significant)
then with DC and MA removed (little changed). The relationship without
these two states is shown below.
I also looked at the association between hate crimes, hate groups, and
Trump’s % of the vote in each state. The
association between hate crimes and Trump’s % of the vote is confounded by DC
and MA having high rates of reported hate crimes and low % of the vote for
Trump. Trump had 4% of the vote in DC. With DC removed there is a positive
relationship between hate group concentration and Trump’s % of the vote. There is a negative relationship between the concentration of hate groups and Trump’s % of the vote if DC is included as can be seen in the graph below.
DC is a powerful outlier compared to the other 50 states in income,
life expectancy, hate groups, and now hate crimes. Others dismissed DC
having a high rate of hate groups by stating that they just had their
national headquarters there. The high rate of reported hate crimes
supports that these groups are active in DC with a large minority
population suggests that these groups are indeed active there. The alt-right conference below discussed below also supports the activity there.
There are states with high rates of hate groups but low rates of reported hate crimes such as Arkansas and Mississippi (with zero reported hate crimes). Are the groups more cautious in these states or are hate crimes less likely to be reported there? I don’t know the answer to these questions but they merit further study.
**Related Posts**
More Hate Groups in States Where Trump and Clinton Win (and in DC Where He Lost)
SPLC Hate Group Update: Washington, DC has an Increase in Activity